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Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

Internet Archive · 309 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

  • p. 3 …Questionnaire 4 Coding System and Work Sheet 6 Identification of Working Papers 7 Evaluation of Individual…
  • p. 10 …During the course of the work, the number of reports sub- mitted for analysis and evaluation…
  • p. 13 …On the basis of this analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the…
  • p. 14 Coding System, and Work Sheet The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory…
  • p. 15 /v Identification of Working Papers The actualjreduction of d.ata to IBM jaujijchedj^c_a.rd…
  • p. 16 …most representative report from each MULTIPLE OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing…
  • p. 17 …report for each phenomenon. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing a report for…
  • p. 18 …Using one column of the IBM card, and the correlated working papers, the code for this…
  • p. 21 …This work was done at ATIC, periodically, as reports became ready. During an identification conference, each…
  • p. 84 …only of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS reports available at ATIC…
  • p. 97 …for a radio station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object…
  • p. 101 …This feeling of surfeit was universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually…
  • p. 261 APPENDIX B WORKING PAPER FORMS M i 255 and 256
  • p. 262 …Codes for Work Sheet Exhibit B5. Work Sheet . Exhibit B6. Codes for Card Bible Exhibit B7…
  • p. 289 t EXHIBIT B4 CODES FOR WORK SHEET ft 289 and 290
  • p. 295 fc! EXHIBIT B5 WORK SHEET • 1 297 and 298
  • p. 296 Observer's Data Sheet Question WORK SHEET Punched Card Column Code Description 2 3 h Serial…
  • p. 299 …These cards (and the corresponding WORK SHEETS) contain data from several sources. Columns referenced to the…
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UNKNOWNS with sufficiently detailed description would be called "good
UNKNOWNS", while the remainder would simply be called UNKNOWNS.
One hundred sixty-four folders of a total of 186 OBJECT SIGHTINGS in
Groups 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 were examined. There were 18 possible aircraft,
20 possible balloons, 7 good UNKNOWNS, 100 UNKNOWNS, and (19 others
which were identified as being possible KNOWNS of various types. It is
interesting to note that two of these were established as mock suns on the
basis of the angle of sun elevation and the sun bearing angle, together with
the direction of the object from the observer. In addition, the UNKNOWNS
in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 4 and 5 (nighttime sightings) were scanned
with no attempt at identification, but to find any possible "good UNKNOWNS",
There were five sightings that could be put into this category.
Of the UNKNOWNS, there were approximately 20 sightings that were
observed in such a way that they should have been recognized easily if they
had been familiar objects, that is, there was little possibility that their
shapes, as seen, could have been distorted sufficiently by one cause or
another to render them unrecognizable. There were a very few that would
have been identified as guided missiles or rockets, but that were not so
identified because of the geographical location in which they were seen.
All of the remaining UNKNOWNS were classified as such solely be-
cause they were reported to have performed maneuvers that could not be
ascribed to any known objects. In these cases, the shape might have been
unrecognizable also, but it was felt that this was because of distortion and
distance, or'because of darkness.
This is a very important point. To put it differently, if these
UNKNOWNS, which represent all but about 40 of the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS,
were reported to have performed maneuvers which could be ascribed to
known phenomena, they would probably have been identified as KNOWNS.
With the exception of some radar sightings, all of these maneuvers were
observed visually. The possibilities for inaccuracies are great because
of the inability of an observer to estimate visually size, distance, and
speed.
Reports of sightings by radar usually were of high-speed objects,
some at extremely high altitudes. Some were identified as UNKNOWNS
because there was no object to be seen visually at the point indicated by the
radar seto It cannot be said wrth any assurance what these radar sightings
mean, but the most logical explanation is that they are ground targets re-
flected by an atmospheric temperature inversion layer. The validity of this
statement cannot be established. It is felt that radar sightings in this study
are of no significance whatsoever unless a visual sighting of the object also
is made. ,
Taken in conjunction with the Chi Square Tests discussed earlier,
the results of the re-evaluation of reports identified as UNKNOWN
SIGHTINGS would seem to indicate that the majority of them could easily
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Cases discussed

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Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.