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This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
“meteor”15 pages
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page SUMMARY • vii 1 INTRODUCTION 1 ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DATA 3 REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM 4 Questionnaire 4 Coding System and Work Sheet 6 Identification of Working Papers 7 Evaluation of Individual Reports - 10 ANALYSIS OF THE DATA 14 Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics 14 Graphical Presentation 16 Advanced Study of the Data 16 Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer 16 Statistical Chi Square Test . 60 The "Flying Saucer" Model 76 CONCLUSIONS 94 APPENDIX A. TABULATION OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS . . . . 95 APPENDIX B. WORKING PAPER FORMS 255 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 1 Frequency of Sightings by Year for Object, Unit, and All Sightings 17 Figure 2 Distribution of Evaluations of Object, Unit, and All Sightings for All Years 18 Figure 3 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years With Comparisons of Each Year for Each Evaluation Group 19 Figure 4 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years and Each Year 20 Figure 5 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation Within Months for All Years 21 Figure 6 Distribution of Object Sightings by Certain and Doubtful Evaluations for All Years and Each Year 22 Figure 7 Frequency of Object Sightings and Unknown Object Evaluations by Months, 1947-1952 23 Figure 8 Distribution of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups With Evaluation Distributions for Each Group 24 Figure 9 Distribution of Object Sightings Among the Four. Sighting Reliability Groups for All Years and Each Year 25 Figure 10 Distribution of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, Segregated by Military and Civilian Observers, With Evaluation Distribution for Each Segregation 26 Figure 11 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Colors of Object(s) With Evaluation Distribution for Each Color Group 27 Figure 12 Distribution of Object Sightings by Number of Objects Seen per Sighting. With Evaluation Distribution for Each Group . . . . . . . 28 Figure 13 Distribution of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting With Evaluation Distribution for Each Duration Group . , 29 111
Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.