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Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

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This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

  • p. 3 …Questionnaire 4 Coding System and Work Sheet 6 Identification of Working Papers 7 Evaluation of Individual…
  • p. 10 …During the course of the work, the number of reports sub- mitted for analysis and evaluation…
  • p. 13 …On the basis of this analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the…
  • p. 14 Coding System, and Work Sheet The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory…
  • p. 15 /v Identification of Working Papers The actualjreduction of d.ata to IBM jaujijchedj^c_a.rd…
  • p. 16 …most representative report from each MULTIPLE OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing…
  • p. 17 …report for each phenomenon. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing a report for…
  • p. 18 …Using one column of the IBM card, and the correlated working papers, the code for this…
  • p. 21 …This work was done at ATIC, periodically, as reports became ready. During an identification conference, each…
  • p. 84 …only of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS reports available at ATIC…
  • p. 97 …for a radio station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object…
  • p. 101 …This feeling of surfeit was universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually…
  • p. 261 APPENDIX B WORKING PAPER FORMS M i 255 and 256
  • p. 262 …Codes for Work Sheet Exhibit B5. Work Sheet . Exhibit B6. Codes for Card Bible Exhibit B7…
  • p. 289 t EXHIBIT B4 CODES FOR WORK SHEET ft 289 and 290
  • p. 295 fc! EXHIBIT B5 WORK SHEET • 1 297 and 298
  • p. 296 Observer's Data Sheet Question WORK SHEET Punched Card Column Code Description 2 3 h Serial…
  • p. 299 …These cards (and the corresponding WORK SHEETS) contain data from several sources. Columns referenced to the…
meteorological phenomena like small tornadoes, were collected into a
category called OTHER. A separate category for the uncommon natural
phenomena associated with light reflections or refractions, such as mirages,
sun dogs, inversion-layer images, and distortions caused by airborne ice,
was established with the title of LIGHT PHENOMENON. Categories for
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION, PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS, and
UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could not be fitted into the
preceding identifications. An explanation of their use follows:
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION - This identification category
was assigned to a report when, upon final con-
sideration, there was some es-s^ui±ijJLitem of
information mis sing, or there was enough
doubt about what data were available to disallow
identification as a common object or some
natural phenomenon. It is emphasized that this
category of identification was not used as a
convenient way to dispose of what might be
called "poor unknowns", but as a category for
reports that, perhaps, could have been one of
several known objects or natural phenomena.
No reports identified as INSUFFICIENT INFORMA-
TION contain authenticated facts or impressions
concerning the sighting that would prevent its
being identified as a known olbject or phenomenon;
PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS - This identification
category was assigned to a report when,
although it was well established that the ob-
server had seen something, it was also
obvious that the description of the sighting
had been overdrawn. Religious fanaticism, a
desire for publicity, or an over-active imagi-
nation were the most common mental ab_£-E—
rations causing this type of report;
UNKNOWN —. This designation in the identification code was
assigned to those reports of sightings wherein
the description of the object and its maneuvers
could not be fitted to the pattern of anyjenown
object or phenomenon.
For the purposes of this study, two groups of identifications were
recognized, the KNOWNS (including all identification categories except the
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS. .
All possible identifications provided in the code system, except
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION and UNKNOWN, could be assigned accord-
ing to two degrees of certainty, designated "Certain" and "Doubtful".
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Cases discussed

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Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.