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Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

Internet Archive · 309 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

  • p. 3 …Questionnaire 4 Coding System and Work Sheet 6 Identification of Working Papers 7 Evaluation of Individual…
  • p. 10 …During the course of the work, the number of reports sub- mitted for analysis and evaluation…
  • p. 13 …On the basis of this analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the…
  • p. 14 Coding System, and Work Sheet The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory…
  • p. 15 /v Identification of Working Papers The actualjreduction of d.ata to IBM jaujijchedj^c_a.rd…
  • p. 16 …most representative report from each MULTIPLE OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing…
  • p. 17 …report for each phenomenon. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing a report for…
  • p. 18 …Using one column of the IBM card, and the correlated working papers, the code for this…
  • p. 21 …This work was done at ATIC, periodically, as reports became ready. During an identification conference, each…
  • p. 84 …only of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS reports available at ATIC…
  • p. 97 …for a radio station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object…
  • p. 101 …This feeling of surfeit was universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually…
  • p. 261 APPENDIX B WORKING PAPER FORMS M i 255 and 256
  • p. 262 …Codes for Work Sheet Exhibit B5. Work Sheet . Exhibit B6. Codes for Card Bible Exhibit B7…
  • p. 289 t EXHIBIT B4 CODES FOR WORK SHEET ft 289 and 290
  • p. 295 fc! EXHIBIT B5 WORK SHEET • 1 297 and 298
  • p. 296 Observer's Data Sheet Question WORK SHEET Punched Card Column Code Description 2 3 h Serial…
  • p. 299 …These cards (and the corresponding WORK SHEETS) contain data from several sources. Columns referenced to the…
For machine manipulation, it was desirable to be able to select the
sample of cards (all reports, all sightings, or all phenomena) to be in-
cluded in a particular study. The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION
NUMBER was evolved to fill this desire. Using one column of the IBM
card, and the correlated working papers, the code for this function was
developed. Multiple punching elirninated the need to use several columns
for discrete expression of the variations., Selection of the proper number
in this column thus permitted selection of the desired sample of cards.
Evaluation of Individual Reports
of sighting reports was recognized as a crucial step in the
preparation of data for statistical treatment; inconsistent evaluations would
have invalidated any conclusions to be derived from this study. A method
of evaluation was, therefore, determined simultaneously with the develop-
ment of the questionnaire, the coding system, and the work sheet. It is
emphasized that all phases of evaluation, even including the tedious prep-
aration of the original data for statistical treatment, were entrusted only
to selected, specially qualified scientists and engineers.
Evaluation consisted of a standardized procedure to be followed for:
(1) the deduction of discrete facts, from data which depended on human im-
pressions rather than scientific measurements, (2) the rating of the ob-
server and his report as determined from available information, and (3) the
determination of the probable identification of the phenomenon observed.
Categories of identification, established upon the basis of previous experi-
ence, were as follows:
Balloon
Astronomical
Aircraft
Light phenomenon
Birds
Clouds, dust, etc.
Insufficient information
Psychological manifestations
Unknown
Other
The first step in evaluation, the deduction of discrete facts from
subjective data, required certain calculations based on the information
available in the sighting report. An example was the finding of the approxi-
mate angular velocity and acceleration of the object or objects sighted.
Care was taken during this phase of the work to insure against ^he deduc-
tion of discrete facts not warranted by the original data. Thus, even
though there was a complete lack of any valid evidence consisting of
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Cases discussed

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Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.