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Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

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This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

  • p. 3 …Questionnaire 4 Coding System and Work Sheet 6 Identification of Working Papers 7 Evaluation of Individual…
  • p. 10 …During the course of the work, the number of reports sub- mitted for analysis and evaluation…
  • p. 13 …On the basis of this analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the…
  • p. 14 Coding System, and Work Sheet The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory…
  • p. 15 /v Identification of Working Papers The actualjreduction of d.ata to IBM jaujijchedj^c_a.rd…
  • p. 16 …most representative report from each MULTIPLE OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing…
  • p. 17 …report for each phenomenon. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing a report for…
  • p. 18 …Using one column of the IBM card, and the correlated working papers, the code for this…
  • p. 21 …This work was done at ATIC, periodically, as reports became ready. During an identification conference, each…
  • p. 84 …only of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS reports available at ATIC…
  • p. 97 …for a radio station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object…
  • p. 101 …This feeling of surfeit was universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually…
  • p. 261 APPENDIX B WORKING PAPER FORMS M i 255 and 256
  • p. 262 …Codes for Work Sheet Exhibit B5. Work Sheet . Exhibit B6. Codes for Card Bible Exhibit B7…
  • p. 289 t EXHIBIT B4 CODES FOR WORK SHEET ft 289 and 290
  • p. 295 fc! EXHIBIT B5 WORK SHEET • 1 297 and 298
  • p. 296 Observer's Data Sheet Question WORK SHEET Punched Card Column Code Description 2 3 h Serial…
  • p. 299 …These cards (and the corresponding WORK SHEETS) contain data from several sources. Columns referenced to the…
MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was identified with the .00 subserial number.
As an example, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consisting of six sighting
reports would have the following serial numbers:
1132.00 representing the best report and observer
1132.01 representing an additional observer
1132.02 representing an additional observer
1132.03 representing an additional observer
1132.04 representing an additional observer
1132.05 representing an additional observer
During the course of the transcription of the data to machine card
form, it became obvious that certain reports could have been independent
observations of the same phenomenon. So, if the presentation of an
analysis based on one report for each sighting -was valid (the concept of
UNIT SIGHTINGS), a presentation of an analysis based on one report for
each phenomenon should be .valid also. Further, the examination of data
relating to the actual number of phenomena was considered to be the proper
basis for assessing the probability of technological developments outside
the range of present-day scientific knowledge. Therefore, a designation of
OBJECT SIGHTINGS was established, with the following definition:
OBJECT SIGHTING - (1) The group of,reports consisting of
one report for each phenomenon. (2) The
questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card
representing a report for each phenomenon
accepted for the statistical study.
In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to all reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS
refer to actual sightings, and OBJECT SIGHTINGS refer to the assumed
number of phenomena.
It must be recognized that the process of identifying OBJECT
SIGHTINGS was deductive, while that for UNIT SIGHTINGS was definitive.
A conservative approach was adopted in the determination of OBJECT
SIGHTINGS, using the factors of date and time of observations, location
of observers, duration of observations, and range, bearing, track direc-
tion, and identification of the phenomena. Any error of selection of OBJECT
SIGHTINGS will tend to be in the direction of reducing the actual number of
phenomena observed (several instances of UNIT SIGHTINGS that might be
one OBJECT SIGHTING were noted, but the evidence was not conclusive
enough to justify consolidation of the reports).
Following the determination of OBJECT SIGHTINGS, a series of
serial numbers, called the INCIDENT SERIAL NUMBERS, was established
to facilitate any future study of a specific object sighting. Each reported
sighting that relates to an OBJECT SIGHTING received the same incident
serial number, a four-digit code paralleling the major serial number
series.

Cases discussed

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Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.