“Sightings”60+ pages
- p. 3 …Sighting Reliability
Groups for All Years and Each Year 25
Figure 10 Distribution of All Sightings…
- p. 4 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
(Continued)
Paiie
Figure 14 Distribution of Object Sightings by Months Among the Eight…
- p. 5 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS '
(Continued)
Page
Figure 38 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic…
- p. 7 …Evaluation of sighting reports, a crucial step in the preparation of the data
for statistical, treatment…
- p. 9 …Hynek1 s definition of the term
is "any aerial phenomenon or sighting that remains unexplained to…
- p. 10 …Although no evidence existed that unexplained reports
of sightings constituted a physical threat to the security…
- p. 11 records include condensations of all individual sighting reports, and the
IBM cards used in vaTious phases…
- p. 12 …Altogether, the data for this study consisted of approximately 4, 000
reports of sightings of unidentified…
- p. 13 …Besides these dis-
crete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be re-
quired…
- p. 14 …the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted.
Prior to the start of the analytical study…
- p. 15 …The num-
ber of reports of sightings in a single folder varied from 1 to over…
- p. 16 SINGLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of a single
report from (1) one OBSERVER with no knowledge…
- p. 17 …In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to all reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS
refer to actual sightings, and…
- p. 18 …The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION
NUMBER was evolved to fill this desire. Using one column…
- p. 19 …About 800
reports of sightings were eliminated or rejected in this manner. Most of
these reports…
- p. 20 …Categories for
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION, PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS, and
UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could not…
- p. 21 …During an identification conference, each sighting report was first
studied, from the original data, by one…
- p. 22 …in
the future about a sighting or a group of sightings, and to provide answers,
was…
- p. 23 …ALL SIGHTINGS (all reports)
UNIT SIGHTINGS, all observers
UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer
UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers…
- p. 24 …of concen-
tration of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other interpre-
tation of…
- p. 25 …sightings
2199 =100%
All sightings
3201 = 100%
Unit sightings
2554=100%
FIGURE I FREQUENCY OF SIGHTINGS…
- p. 26 Object sightings
2199=100%
All sightings
3201 = 100%
Unit sightings
2 5 5 4 = 1 0…
- p. 27 …S
I
FIGURE 3 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALU-
ATION FOR ALL YEARS WITH COMPARISONS…
- p. 28 …of object sightings
2(99 79
c
<u
a.
121 1501
Ilnsuf. —
—info.
All years 1947…
- p. 29 …of object sightings
70 55 8 3 127 129 183 638 407 166 125 10,6…
- p. 30 …3 0
FIGURE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY CERTAIN AND
DOUBTFUL EVALUATIONS FOR ALL YEARS…
- p. 31 * • < * ,
^ | j f c
en
Unknown
object sightings
J F M A M J J A S…
- p. 32 …27 = 3.6%
FIGURE 8 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING
RELIABILITY GROUPS WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTIONS…
- p. 33 …of object sightings
2199 79 43 186 169 121
Q. 40
30
20
10
0
1501…
- p. 34 …Poor
FIGURE 10 DISTRIBUTION OF ALL SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING RELIABILITY GROUPS. SEGREGATED BY
-__-_z MILITARY AND…
- p. 35 …4 %
FIGURE II DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED COLORS
OF OBJECTCS) WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR…
- p. 36 …info
FIGURE 12 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS SEEN PER SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION…
- p. 37 …FIGURE 13 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION OF SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION
DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH DURATION…
- p. 38 …of object sightings
70 55 83
9 0
£ 8 0
JZ
rou
0>
§ 6 0
v…
- p. 39 …90 100
FIGURE 15 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE OF OBJECTS) REPORTED WITH
EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION…
- p. 40 …40 50 60
Evaluation in Per Cent
FIGURE 16 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED SPEED…
- p. 41 …of all sighting
3201
All yeors
117 205 164 306 160 2018
O
Location
not
stated…
- p. 42 …f
FIGURE 18 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY COLOR,1947-1952
A-7496
- p. 43 …OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS PER SIGHTING, 1947-1952
A-7497
- p. 44 …L_
FIGURE 20 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SPEED, 1947-1952
\ ' A-749§
- p. 45 …21 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION , 1 9 4 7 - 1 9…
- p. 46 …22 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9…
- p. 47 …23 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY LIGHT BRIGHTNESS,
1947-1952
A-75 01
- p. 48 …MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
ASTRONOMICAL VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS ASTRONOMICAL
A-7502
- p. 49 …i
i
m
FIGURE 25 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
AIRCRAFT VERSUS…
- p. 50 …MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED
AS BALLOON VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS BALLOON
A-7S0…
- p. 51 …DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS INSUFFI-
CIENT INFORMATION…
- p. 52 …DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
I OTHER VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS OTHER
A-7506
- p. 53 …MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
UNKNOWN VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS UNKNOWN
A-7907
- p. 54 Number of
objects Color Speed Shape Duration
FIGURE 30 CHARACTERISTICS PROFILES OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY
TOTAL…
- p. 55 …IN EACH SUBDIVISION THE TOP FIGURE
INDICATES THE FREOUENCV OF ALL
SIGHTINGS, THE MIDDLE FIGURE UNIT…
- p. 56 oo
FIGURE 32 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION FOR THE TWELVE REGIONAL
AREAS OF THE…
- p. 57 …16.2 % Balance of Central East
Region
81 object sightings
Netf/wrk/
106 object sighting
61…
- p. 58 O
Dayton
144 object sighting!
" 7
Balance of Central
Midwest Region
164 object sightings
FIGURE 34…
- p. 59 …9 %
Balance of Central
Farwest Region
38 object sightings
San Francisco
93 object sightings
FIGURE 35…
- p. 60 CJ1
ro
o
San Antonio
36 object sightings
Balance of South
Midwest Region
FIGURE 36 COMPARISON…
- p. 61 Ol
98 object sightings
""^-Albuquerque
©
Unknown
2 5 . 6 %
Aircraft
20.8%
Balloon
20.0% Unknown…
- p. 62 II 5
Il/O
FIGURE 3 8 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN
THE STRATEGIC…
- p. 63 …Upon completion of these calculations, the cards representing OBJECT
SIGHTINGS were sorted on the sign of…
- p. 65 …50
25
-90
All object sightings
Sun rise
Unknown object, sightings
Suniset
-60 -30 + 30 +60…
Coding System, and Work Sheet
The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory
in the machine handling of data. Thus, the selection of the IBM punched-
card system for analysis of data forced the adoption ~>f a master coding
plan. Since it was impracticable to transfer detailed data of an exact
nature from the questionnaire to the IBM card, an intermediate transfer
form, coordinated with the master code, was necessary.
The master coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the
preliminary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants
before use. It was recognized that this system of coding would be the
heart of the analysis, that is, the completeness of the facility for trans-
lation of data could make or break the study. Accordingly, eyery con.ce.iv-
able factor that might influence the identification of unidentified aerial
objectswas_ included, together with a wide range of variations within each
facjtor. The original coding system (with minor corrections) was used
throughout the translation of the original data with marked success. A copy
of this system, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit B4, Appendix B.
To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an inter-
mediate form called the WORK SHEET (later, the CARD BIBLE) was
developed. Referenced to both the data from the questionnaire and the sys-
tem of report identification, the WORK SHEET permitted an orderly
transcription of data simultaneously by several people. In conjunction
with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the
original data to code form necessary for transfer to punched cards. A
sample is included as Exhibit B5, Appendix B.
After the analysis was under way, it became apparent that the me-
chanics of machine processing could be improved by incorporating in the
IBM card system group classifications of certain factors requiring more
than one column for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of
certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect
to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical examination
of certain segments of the data indicated the need for the definition of a
new factor relating to the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted.
Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assumed that a com-
bination 6f stated factors would, by inference, define the maneuver pattern.
All these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES
and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits B6 and B7, Appendix B.
However, at the time that the maneuver factor was determined to be criti-
cal, it was physically impracticable to make the required definitions and
re-evaluate the original data. Therefore, no code for maneuverability has
been included in the CODES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.