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Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

Internet Archive · 309 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

  • p. 3 …Questionnaire 4 Coding System and Work Sheet 6 Identification of Working Papers 7 Evaluation of Individual…
  • p. 10 …During the course of the work, the number of reports sub- mitted for analysis and evaluation…
  • p. 13 …On the basis of this analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the…
  • p. 14 Coding System, and Work Sheet The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory…
  • p. 15 /v Identification of Working Papers The actualjreduction of d.ata to IBM jaujijchedj^c_a.rd…
  • p. 16 …most representative report from each MULTIPLE OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing…
  • p. 17 …report for each phenomenon. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing a report for…
  • p. 18 …Using one column of the IBM card, and the correlated working papers, the code for this…
  • p. 21 …This work was done at ATIC, periodically, as reports became ready. During an identification conference, each…
  • p. 84 …only of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS reports available at ATIC…
  • p. 97 …for a radio station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object…
  • p. 101 …This feeling of surfeit was universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually…
  • p. 261 APPENDIX B WORKING PAPER FORMS M i 255 and 256
  • p. 262 …Codes for Work Sheet Exhibit B5. Work Sheet . Exhibit B6. Codes for Card Bible Exhibit B7…
  • p. 289 t EXHIBIT B4 CODES FOR WORK SHEET ft 289 and 290
  • p. 295 fc! EXHIBIT B5 WORK SHEET • 1 297 and 298
  • p. 296 Observer's Data Sheet Question WORK SHEET Punched Card Column Code Description 2 3 h Serial…
  • p. 299 …These cards (and the corresponding WORK SHEETS) contain data from several sources. Columns referenced to the…
(12) Case XII. The object had windows in its top and front
and its top midsection. It also had a set of propellers
around its waist.
It is not possible, therefore, to derive a verified model of a "flying
saucer" from the data that have been gathered to date. This point is im-
portant enough to emphasize. Out of about 4, 000 people who said they saw
a "flying saucer", sufficiently detailed descriptions were given in only 12
cases. Having culled the cream of the crop, it is still impossible to develop
a picture of what a "flying saucer" i s .
In addition to this study of the good UNKNOWNS, an attempt was made
to find groups of UNKNOWNS for which the observed characteristics were
the same. No such groups were found.
On the basis of this evidence, therefore, there is a low probability
that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observations of a class of "flying
saucers". It may be that some reports represent observations of not one
but several classes of objects that might have been "flying saucers";
however, the lack of evidence to confirm even one class would seem to make
this possibility remote. It is pointed out that some of the cases of KNOWNS,
before identification, appeared fully as bizarre as any of the 12 cases of
good UNKNOWNS, and, in fact, would have been placed in the class of good
UNKNOWNS had it not been possible to establish their identity.
This is, of course, contrary to the bulk of the publicity that has been
given to this problem.--The reason for the nature of this publicity was
clearly brought out during the re-evaluation study. It is a definite factjthat
upon reading a_JLejw rje_p_QrJLs_,_.:^ that "flying
saucers" are real and are some form of sinister contrivance. This reaction
is independent of the training of the reader or of his attitude toward the
problem prior to the initial contact. It is unfortunate that practically all of
the articles, books, and news stories dealing with the phenomenon of the
"flying saucer" were written by men who were in this category, that i s ,
men who had read only a few selected reports. This is accentuated by the
fact that, as a rule, only the more lu r id - s oundin g reports are cited in these
publications. Were it not for this common psychological tendency to be
captivated by the mysterious, it is possible that no problem of this nature
would exist.
The reaction, mentioned above, that after reading a few reports,, the
reader is convinced that "flying saucers" are real and are some form of
sinister contrivance, is very misleading. As more and more of the reports
are read, the feeling that "saucers" are r-e-al fades, and is replaced by a
feeling of skepticism regarding their existence. The reader eventually
reaches a point of saturation, after which the reports contain no new infor-
mation at all and are no longer of any interest. This feeling of surfeit was
universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually
necessitated a conscious effort on their part to remain objective.
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Cases discussed

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Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.