“Sightings”60+ pages
- p. 3 …Sighting Reliability
Groups for All Years and Each Year 25
Figure 10 Distribution of All Sightings…
- p. 4 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
(Continued)
Paiie
Figure 14 Distribution of Object Sightings by Months Among the Eight…
- p. 5 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS '
(Continued)
Page
Figure 38 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic…
- p. 7 …Evaluation of sighting reports, a crucial step in the preparation of the data
for statistical, treatment…
- p. 9 …Hynek1 s definition of the term
is "any aerial phenomenon or sighting that remains unexplained to…
- p. 10 …Although no evidence existed that unexplained reports
of sightings constituted a physical threat to the security…
- p. 11 records include condensations of all individual sighting reports, and the
IBM cards used in vaTious phases…
- p. 12 …Altogether, the data for this study consisted of approximately 4, 000
reports of sightings of unidentified…
- p. 13 …Besides these dis-
crete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be re-
quired…
- p. 14 …the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted.
Prior to the start of the analytical study…
- p. 15 …The num-
ber of reports of sightings in a single folder varied from 1 to over…
- p. 16 SINGLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of a single
report from (1) one OBSERVER with no knowledge…
- p. 17 …In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to all reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS
refer to actual sightings, and…
- p. 18 …The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION
NUMBER was evolved to fill this desire. Using one column…
- p. 19 …About 800
reports of sightings were eliminated or rejected in this manner. Most of
these reports…
- p. 20 …Categories for
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION, PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS, and
UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could not…
- p. 21 …During an identification conference, each sighting report was first
studied, from the original data, by one…
- p. 22 …in
the future about a sighting or a group of sightings, and to provide answers,
was…
- p. 23 …ALL SIGHTINGS (all reports)
UNIT SIGHTINGS, all observers
UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer
UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers…
- p. 24 …of concen-
tration of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other interpre-
tation of…
- p. 25 …sightings
2199 =100%
All sightings
3201 = 100%
Unit sightings
2554=100%
FIGURE I FREQUENCY OF SIGHTINGS…
- p. 26 Object sightings
2199=100%
All sightings
3201 = 100%
Unit sightings
2 5 5 4 = 1 0…
- p. 27 …S
I
FIGURE 3 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALU-
ATION FOR ALL YEARS WITH COMPARISONS…
- p. 28 …of object sightings
2(99 79
c
<u
a.
121 1501
Ilnsuf. —
—info.
All years 1947…
- p. 29 …of object sightings
70 55 8 3 127 129 183 638 407 166 125 10,6…
- p. 30 …3 0
FIGURE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY CERTAIN AND
DOUBTFUL EVALUATIONS FOR ALL YEARS…
- p. 31 * • < * ,
^ | j f c
en
Unknown
object sightings
J F M A M J J A S…
- p. 32 …27 = 3.6%
FIGURE 8 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING
RELIABILITY GROUPS WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTIONS…
- p. 33 …of object sightings
2199 79 43 186 169 121
Q. 40
30
20
10
0
1501…
- p. 34 …Poor
FIGURE 10 DISTRIBUTION OF ALL SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING RELIABILITY GROUPS. SEGREGATED BY
-__-_z MILITARY AND…
- p. 35 …4 %
FIGURE II DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED COLORS
OF OBJECTCS) WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR…
- p. 36 …info
FIGURE 12 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS SEEN PER SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION…
- p. 37 …FIGURE 13 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION OF SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION
DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH DURATION…
- p. 38 …of object sightings
70 55 83
9 0
£ 8 0
JZ
rou
0>
§ 6 0
v…
- p. 39 …90 100
FIGURE 15 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE OF OBJECTS) REPORTED WITH
EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION…
- p. 40 …40 50 60
Evaluation in Per Cent
FIGURE 16 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED SPEED…
- p. 41 …of all sighting
3201
All yeors
117 205 164 306 160 2018
O
Location
not
stated…
- p. 42 …f
FIGURE 18 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY COLOR,1947-1952
A-7496
- p. 43 …OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS PER SIGHTING, 1947-1952
A-7497
- p. 44 …L_
FIGURE 20 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SPEED, 1947-1952
\ ' A-749§
- p. 45 …21 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION , 1 9 4 7 - 1 9…
- p. 46 …22 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9…
- p. 47 …23 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY LIGHT BRIGHTNESS,
1947-1952
A-75 01
- p. 48 …MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
ASTRONOMICAL VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS ASTRONOMICAL
A-7502
- p. 49 …i
i
m
FIGURE 25 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
AIRCRAFT VERSUS…
- p. 50 …MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED
AS BALLOON VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS BALLOON
A-7S0…
- p. 51 …DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS INSUFFI-
CIENT INFORMATION…
- p. 52 …DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
I OTHER VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS OTHER
A-7506
- p. 53 …MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
UNKNOWN VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS UNKNOWN
A-7907
- p. 54 Number of
objects Color Speed Shape Duration
FIGURE 30 CHARACTERISTICS PROFILES OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY
TOTAL…
- p. 55 …IN EACH SUBDIVISION THE TOP FIGURE
INDICATES THE FREOUENCV OF ALL
SIGHTINGS, THE MIDDLE FIGURE UNIT…
- p. 56 oo
FIGURE 32 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION FOR THE TWELVE REGIONAL
AREAS OF THE…
- p. 57 …16.2 % Balance of Central East
Region
81 object sightings
Netf/wrk/
106 object sighting
61…
- p. 58 O
Dayton
144 object sighting!
" 7
Balance of Central
Midwest Region
164 object sightings
FIGURE 34…
- p. 59 …9 %
Balance of Central
Farwest Region
38 object sightings
San Francisco
93 object sightings
FIGURE 35…
- p. 60 CJ1
ro
o
San Antonio
36 object sightings
Balance of South
Midwest Region
FIGURE 36 COMPARISON…
- p. 61 Ol
98 object sightings
""^-Albuquerque
©
Unknown
2 5 . 6 %
Aircraft
20.8%
Balloon
20.0% Unknown…
- p. 62 II 5
Il/O
FIGURE 3 8 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN
THE STRATEGIC…
- p. 63 …Upon completion of these calculations, the cards representing OBJECT
SIGHTINGS were sorted on the sign of…
- p. 65 …50
25
-90
All object sightings
Sun rise
Unknown object, sightings
Suniset
-60 -30 + 30 +60…
a significant number of fairly complete reports by reliable observers re-
mained unexplained. Although no evidence existed that unexplained reports
of sightings constituted a physical threat to the security of the U. S. , in
March, 1952, the Air Force decided that all reports of unidentified
aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated to determine if "flying
saucers" represented technological developments not known to this country.
Originally, the problem involved the preparation and analysis of about
1,300 reports accumulated by the Air Force between 1947 and the end of
March, 1952. During the course of the work, the number of reports sub-
mitted for analysis and evaluation more than tripled, the result of the un-
precedented increase in observations during 1952. Accordingly, this study
is based on a number of reports considered to be large enough for a p_re^-
lirrmm£y^statistical analysis, approximately 4, 000 reports.
This study was undertaken primarily to categorize the available
reports of sightings and to determine the probability that any of the reports
of unidentified aerial objects represented observations of "flying saucers".
With full cognizance of the quality of the data available for study, yet with
an awareness of the proportions this subject has assumed at times in the
public mind,, this work was undertaken with all the seriousness accorded
to a straightforward scientific investigation. In order to establish the
probability that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects represented
observations of "flying saucers", it was necessary to make an attempt to
answer the question "What is a * flying saucer1 ? " . However, it must be
emphasized that this was only incidental to the primary purpose of the
study, the determination of the probability that any of the reports of un-
identified aerial objects represented observations of "flying saucers", as
defined on Page 1. ^
The basic technique for this study consisted of reducing the available
data to a form suitable for mechanical manipulation, a prerequisite for the
application of preliminary statistical methods. One of International
Business Machine Corporation' s systems was chosen as the best available
mechanical equipment.
The reduction of data contained in sighting reports into a form suit-
able for transfer to IBM punched cards was extremely difficult ""and time
consuming.
For this study a panel of consultants was formed, consisting of both
experts -within and outside ATIC. During the course of the work, guidance
and advice were received from the panel. The professional experience .
available from the panel covered major scientific fields arid numerous
specialized fields.
All records and working papers of this study have been carefully
preserved in an orderly fashion suitable for ready reference. These