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Defense Intelligence Reference Document An Introduction To The Statistical Drake Equation

Defense Intelligence Agency · 55 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.

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“Works”7 pages

  • p. 9 …The first such discovery occurred in 1995, when Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz, working at the…
  • p. 12 …standard deviation is known by the scientists working in the respective field (let it be astronomy…
  • p. 14 …Finally, a numerical example explaining how the statistical Drake equation works in the practice will be…
  • p. 15 …An Example Explaining the Statistical Drake Equation To understand how things work in practice for the…
  • p. 25 …on pages 36 and 37 of his work, and read, respectively (note that Shannon omits the…
  • p. 28 …a practical example is given of how our ~tatistical Drake equation works numerically. We work out…
  • p. 44 …This number 459() is HIGHER than the 3500 foreseen by the classical Drake equation working with…
11 March 2010
UNCLASSIFIED/ /f81il 8ffll1Ak Wfili IH.k\f
Defense
Intelligence
Reference
Document
Acquisition Threat Support
ICOD: 1 December 2009
An Introduction to the
Statistical Drake Equation
UNCLASSIFIED/ ,'P8R:: 8PPI@Itllt 1!!191!! 8HLV

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Report, from the dia collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 55 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.