Documents / Report

Defense Intelligence Reference Document An Introduction To The Statistical Drake Equation

Defense Intelligence Agency · 55 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.

Open the PDF Original source ↗

“The Star”9 pages

  • p. 7 …a trillion stars in our Milky Way galaxy alone, could ours be the only one accompanied…
  • p. 8 …We know a fair amount about the early factors in the equation, the number of stars…
  • p. 9 UNCLASSIFIEDi/ FOR bi I ICIJ!IL "31! 8HLY We know Ns, the number of stars in…
  • p. 10 …galactic civilizations, then the sky is softly humming with messages from the stars. These estimates are…
  • p. 11 …Much more scientific, on the contrary, is to say that the number of stars in the…
  • p. 12 …the probability distribution of the number of stars in the galaxy, not to mention the probability…
  • p. 28 …For instance, the number of stars in the Galaxy is assumed to be uniformly distributed around…
  • p. 29 …I) N1· i~ the estimated number of stars in our Galaxy. 2) fp is the fraction…
  • p. 34 …For instance, we assume that the fraction of stars that have planet~ is 50%, i.e…
11 March 2010
UNCLASSIFIED/ /f81il 8ffll1Ak Wfili IH.k\f
Defense
Intelligence
Reference
Document
Acquisition Threat Support
ICOD: 1 December 2009
An Introduction to the
Statistical Drake Equation
UNCLASSIFIED/ ,'P8R:: 8PPI@Itllt 1!!191!! 8HLV

Not linked to a story yet.

About this file

Report, from the dia collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 55 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.