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Defense Intelligence Reference Document An Introduction To The Statistical Drake Equation
Defense Intelligence Agency · 55 pages · text from the file's own layer
This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.
“Nature”10 pages
- p. 10 …and what, on Earth, we call human nature. It seems fairly
clear that if self-destruction…
- p. 13 …The key steps are the following:
• Take the natural logs of both sides of the statistical…
- p. 23 …and 2670 light years, respectively),
the next natural question that arises is: "what is the range…
- p. 30 …the natural quest inn then arises: how arc the sci en
mL:an ialucs un thL…
- p. 32 UNCLASSIFIED/ /FOR GI I tetlllt ~:!I! 8HLY
So, let us take the natural log~ of both…
- p. 35 …COMPUTING THE LOGS
OF THE 7 UNIFORMY
DISTRIBUTED DRAKE RANDOM
VARIABLESD;
Intuitively speaking, the natural log…
- p. 36 …7 lm(a,)sy,ln(h,)I (28)
Probability density functions of the natural logs of…
- p. 37 …Thus, the characteri.~tic function of the natural log
t~fthe Drake u11(fr1rm random variahle…
- p. 44 …Similarly it happens fur natural lug of N. i.e. the
random variable Y uf (5…
- p. 53 …2671) light years, re~pectively), the next natural
4uestion that ari~es is: '·what is the…
11 March 2010
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Defense
Intelligence
Reference
Document
Acquisition Threat Support
ICOD: 1 December 2009
An Introduction to the
Statistical Drake Equation
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Report, from the dia collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 55 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.