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Defense Intelligence Reference Document An Introduction To The Statistical Drake Equation

Defense Intelligence Agency · 55 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.

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  • p. 28 …apparently previously unknown and dubbed "Maccone distribution" by Paul Davies. 4) DATA ENRICHMENT PRINCIPLE. It should…
  • p. 31 …DISTANCE to the nearest ExtraTerrestrial Civilization as a probability distribution (Paul Davies dubbed that the Maccone…
  • p. 46 …During this author's talk, Paul Davies suggested to call "the Macrnne distribution'' the new probability…
  • p. 51 …Prnhahilit,, distributinn Unnamed (Paul Davies Sil" rested ·'Maccune di.~trihutinn") 1:lnl fiRi,,.,.',\h,,, ,_, 1-,r…
  • p. 54 …Jill Tarter, Paul Davies, Seth Shostak, Doug Vakoch, Tom Pierson, Carol Oliver. Paul Shuch and Kathryn…
11 March 2010
UNCLASSIFIED/ /f81il 8ffll1Ak Wfili IH.k\f
Defense
Intelligence
Reference
Document
Acquisition Threat Support
ICOD: 1 December 2009
An Introduction to the
Statistical Drake Equation
UNCLASSIFIED/ ,'P8R:: 8PPI@Itllt 1!!191!! 8HLV

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Report, from the dia collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 55 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.