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scientific and technical literature. But the possible implications of any piece of such information are usually so broad that they do not seem to provide a basis for specific forecasts. Recognition of this problem prompted the [redacted] recommendation that possibilities for deductive methods be examined. A deductive method would consist of postulating a specific Soviet threat, then determining what work would be required for the Soviets to produce the threat and, finally, comparing the resulting data with available Soviet scientific-technical information to assess the probability that the postulated threat is real.
Examination of methods used for technological forecasting in U.S. industry showed promise that some of these methods might be usefully adapted for future threat forecasting. [redacted]
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