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the preparation of special monograph series, attempts were made to integrate the substance of previously produced intelligence papers for the purpose of making scientific and technical forecasts. The R&D elements of the DOD were especially eager consumers of such estimates. Unfortunately, however, the forecasts were disappointingly general and, in addition, were very conservative. Special studies were undertaken in the late 1950s to find new approaches, several with the aid of contractors. One project consisted of a study of the characteristics of "breakthrough", in order to identify key questions that could be applied systematically to information on the USSR to determine whether future advances in specific fields were probable. Another project applied statistical analysis to Soviet scientific publication patterns on the assumption that increase or decrease in rates of publication might indicate Soviet intentions as to future developments. Although a good deal was learned from these endeavors, no workable method for forecasting emerged. The major underlying difficulty of all such efforts was insufficient information on the USSR, particularly with respect to the applied research and the developmental phases of weapons systems programs -- classified Soviet research.
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